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Tottenham’s exact relegation probability drops massively after Aston Villa win

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At a glance:

  • Tottenham’s relegation probability drops
  • De Zerbi and co secure priceless 2-1 win against Villa
  • Spurs out of the relegation zone

Tottenham climbed out of the Premier League relegation zone as they secured a 2-1 win against Aston Villa.

Roberto De Zerbi’s side produced a statement display at Villa Park and were comfortably the better of the two teams.

Conor Gallagher broke the deadlock and Richarlison doubled Tottenham’s lead in the first half.

And just as it looked like the away side would secure a clean sheet, Emi Buendia came off the bench to score a late goal that proved to be merely a consolation.

Tottenham are now officially out of the drop zone, but with three Premier League games left to play, what do their relegation prospects look like?

Tottenham’s exact relegation probability

De Zerbi’s side are currently 17th, a point above West Ham, who lost 3-0 to Brentford this week.

Read More: Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham: Player Ratings as relegation fears eased with sensational win

After successive wins, Tottenham have given themselves a good chance of remaining in the Premier League.

As seen in the graph below, before the game, they were favourites to get relegated.

In fact, their relegation probability was as high as 58%, but after their win at Villa Park, that number dropped to 25%.

For West Ham, meanwhile, things obviously changed for the worse. Despite their 3-0 defeat, they were given a 35% chance of getting relegated before Tottenham kicked off vs Villa.

However, after the North London club’s statement win, West Ham’s relegation percentage went as high as 73%, which is a worrying sign for the Hammers.

De Zerbi tells Tottenham to stay focused

Tottenham have managed to string together a run of creditable performances and have picked up seven points from their last three Premier League games.

They are out of the bottom three, but De Zerbi feels the job isn’t finished yet as he urged his players to keep up their newfound momentum.

Read More: ‘When he plays well, we play with 12’ – Roberto De Zerbi blown away by Tottenham player

“The season is not finished yet and we cannot be happy just for these two wins,” said the Italian via BBC.

“We have to keep working with the same mentality. And now I don’t want to hear the positive voice. We have to stay focused for the next game.

“I think my biggest job is to help the players show their qualities. Their level is not to fight for relegation, but we have to accept and be stronger than the people who speak too much.

“We have to feel the same pressure. Football can change week-by-week and we can’t forget the position in the table and what we felt before the Wolves game. We have to push again.”

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Vishal Subramanian is the Managing Editor of Read Tottenham and a seasoned sports journalist with over six years of experience in the Premier League media landscape. Having authored and edited more than 3,000 articles, Vishal has built a reputation for deep tactical analysis and breaking transfer news. He has interviewed some of the game's most influential figures, including Xavi, Jamal Musiala, and Harry Kane. Based in India, Vishal oversees the editorial strategy for Read Tottenham, ensuring every story meets the highest standards of accuracy and insight for the Spurs faithful.

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